NEW YORK – Back in January, I predicted that the spread of the new COVID-19 coronavirus in China would reach a turning point by the second or third week of February. Indeed, the total number of serious and critical cases in the country has been declining since February 22, and there have been no new cases in the last few days other than international travelers arriving in China. Unfortunately, new infections outside China have risen very fast, with potentially disastrous consequences for public health and the global economy